基于逻辑回归的重庆市城镇开发边界划定及影响因素分析

Delimitation of Chongqing's Urban Growth Boundary and Identification of Influencing Factors Based on Logistic Regression

【目的】为控制城镇蔓延和保护生态空间格局﹐研究划定重庆市城镇开发边界,这对城镇规划与空间扩展具有重要现实意义。【方法】结合工程地质,水域环境、生态与农业.交通建设、社会经济共5类因子以及下属的12个二级因子构建城镇开发边界的划定体系;以2015年重庆市土地利用类型为基准﹐运用逻辑回归模型模拟未来城镇用地﹐基于评价结果划定2030年重庆市城镇开发边界并进行精度评价﹔运用地理探测器对城镇开发边界划定的影响因素进行因子分析和交互探究。【结果】逻辑回归模型划定2030年重庆市城镇开发边界为3334.82 km^2,初步构建了都市区城乡一体、协调发展的格局。模拟预测精确度和召回率分别位于0.8,0.7以上;准确率和Kappa系数分别为0.994,0.806;测试、训练和全体数据的AUC值均在0.95以上。其次,因子探测中的首位因子为夜间灯光数据和GDP数据。【结论】基于逻辑回归模型划定的城镇开发边界符合规划要求。重庆市内各区域发展差距较大,未来的城镇扩展预测规模:都市区最大,其次为一小时经济圈(除都市区),再次渝东北,最小的为渝东南地区﹐形成“多中心组团式”发展格局,体现了区域协同,高效发展。

[Purposes]In order to control the spread of urban,and protect the ecological spatial pattern,the urban growth boundary of Chongqing has been delineated,which has practical significance for urban planning and spatial expansion.[Methods]A total of 12 secondary factors under the five categories of engineering geology,water environment,ecology and agriculture,transportation construction,and socio-economic factors are used as the influencing factors for the delineation of urban growth boundaries to build an evaluation system;based on the land use of Chongqing in 2015,logistic regression model was used to simulate future urban land use.On this basis,the urban growth boundary of Chongqing in 2030 was delineated and evaluated;using geographic detector to analyse the importance and interaction of influencing factors.[Findings]The logistic regression model delimits the urban growth boundary of Chongqing in 2030 as 3 334.82 km2.The urban-rural integration and coordinated development pattern of urban areas are constructed initially.The simulation prediction accuracy and recall rate are greater above 0.8 and 0.7,respectively,and the accuracy rate and Kappa coefficient are 0.994 and 0.806,respectively.The AUC values of test,training and all data are all above 0.95;secondly,the most important factor of factor detection is night light and GDP.[Conclusions]Delimitation of urban growth boundary based on logistic regression model meets planning requirements.There is a large development gap among different regions in Chongqing,and the predicted scale of urban expansion in the future is as follows:the metropolitan area is the largest,the second place is the one-hour economic circle(excluding metropolitan area),the third place is the northeast of Chongqing,and the southeast of Chongqing is the smallest.Thus it forms"a multi-center group"development pattern,and reflects regional coordination and efficient development.