中国经济增长与区域生态福利绩效的非线性关系研究——基于省级面板数据的联立方程模型

A Study on the Nonlinear Relationship between China’s Economic Growth and Regional Ecological Welfare Performance:Simultaneous Equation Model Based on Provincial Panel Data

文章考虑区域经济增长与区域生态福利绩效的双向作用机制,在理论分析的基础上,基于2004—2016年全国29省(市、区)的面板数据,运用Super-SBM模型测算了各省(市、区)生态福利绩效水平,进而通过构建联立方程模型实证检验了区域经济增长与区域生态福利绩效水平的内在关系,研究表明:区域经济增长对区域生态福利绩效具有“倒U型”的影响关系,当前中国东部的大部分省(市)已处于曲线的第二阶段;对外开放程度、技术水平对生态福利绩效水平的提升具有促进作用,产业结构、城镇化水平对其提升具有抑制作用,而环境规制与能源结构的影响不显著;生态福利绩效对经济增长具有反作用,生态福利绩效水平每提高1%,人均GDP相应地提高0.687%。据此建议,政策制定要注重转变发展方式,因地制宜探索实现二者良性互动的可行路径。

In order to discover the two-way action mechanism between regional economic growth and regional ecological welfare performance,the ecological welfare performance levels of 29 provinces(cities and districts)are calculated by the Super-SBM model,based on their panel data from 2004 to 2016 as well as theoretical analysis.Then a simultaneous equation model is set up to empirically test the internal relationship between regional economic growth and regional ecological welfare performance level.The result shows that the influence of regional economic growth on regional ecological welfare performance displays a relation of“inverted U”,and most provinces(cities)in eastern China are currently in the second stage of the curve;the degree of opening to the outside world and the level of technology have a promoting effect on the improvement of ecological welfare performance,while industrial structure and urbanization level have a restraining effect,and the effect of environmental regulation and energy structure is not significant;and ecological welfare performance has a negative effect on economic growth:for every 1%increase in the level of ecological welfare performance,the GDP per capita increases accordingly by 0.687%.Therefore,policy formulation should focus on transforming the development mode and exploring feasible paths to realize the benign interaction between the two according to local conditions.