基于改进博弈论组合权重的云模型在城市洪涝易损性评价中的应用

Application of Cloud Model in Evaluation of Urban Vulnerability to Floods Based on Improved Game Theory and Combined Weight

城市洪涝易损性反映了城市中人类、社会、经济财产受到洪涝灾害破坏和损害的状态。将云模型理论方法引入评价研究中,以广西壮族自治区的14个城市为例,建立了洪涝易损性的评价因子体系,并划分5个易损等级。在权重确定方面,研究以主、客观权重为基础,通过对博弈论进行改进来保证组合系数的正值性,进而确定合作权重。研究表明,云模型能较好地解决评价研究中存在的不确定性问题,兼顾了评价因子的模糊性和随机性;广西城市的易损性等级整体表现为桂中、桂东偏高,桂西、桂北次之,桂南偏低的空间分布特点。

The urban vulnerability to floods reflects the state of destruction and damage of human,society and economic properties in the city by floods.Taking 14 cities of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region as examples,this paper introduces the cloud model theory method into the evaluation of urban vulnerability to floods,establishes an evaluation factor system for flood vulnerability with five vulnerability levels,improves the game theory to ensure the positive value of combination coefficient based on the subjective and objective weights,and then determines the cooperative weights.The research shows that the cloud model can cope with the uncertainty in the evaluation studies well by taking into account the ambiguity and randomness of factors.In overall,cities in the middle and east Guangxi have higher vulnerability level,followed by those in the west and north Guangxi,and then those in the south Guangxi.