养老保险、城市融入意愿与农民工消费水平

Endowment Insurance,Willingness of Urban Integration and Migrant Workers’Consumption Level

本文采用2016年北京市流动人口动态监测调查数据,并通过倾向得分匹配法解决自选择问题,考察了基本养老保险参保对北京市农民工消费水平的影响。实证结果表明,投保基本养老保险可以显著提升农民工消费水平约5至7个百分点。为进一步探讨养老保险影响消费的作用机制,本文引入农民工城市融入意愿这一中介变量,研究发现养老保险参保对农民工在京购房及居留意愿均产生显著的正向影响,而在京购房和居留等城市融入意愿的提高又可以显著促进农民工在京消费。因此本文认为基本养老保险的参保可能通过提升农民工城市融入意愿这一渠道进而提高其在京消费水平。此外,对京内、京外参保及未参保农民工进行分样本回归发现,京内参保农民工的消费弹性和边际消费倾向最大,而异地参保农民工的相应回归系数最小。因此,提升农民工群体的养老保险覆盖率,增强其城市融入意愿对农民工消费需求的扩大具有重要意义。

Based on the 2016 China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS),this paper examines the impact of basic endowment insurance on the consumption level of migrant workers in Beijing using Propensity Score Matching to solve self-selection problem.The results show that basic pension insurance can significantly increase the consumption level of migrant workers by about 5%to 7%.In addition,this paper explores the mechanism of pension insurance’s impact on consumption by introducing the intermediary variable of migrant workers’willingness of urban integration.It shows that pension insurance participation can significantly enhance migrant workers’willingness to purchase houses and stay in Beijing,increasing the willingness to integrate in Beijing can promote their consumption.Based on this,this paper believes that endowment insurance participation may improve migrant workers’consumption level in Beijing by increasing their willingness to integrate into the city.Through sub-sample regression of uninsured and insured migrant workers in and outside Beijing,it is found that the insured migrant workers in Beijing have the largest consumption elasticity and marginal propensity to consume,while the corresponding regression coefficients for those insured outside Beijing are the smallest.Therefore,improving the endowment insurance coverage of migrant workers and strengthening their willingness to integrate into the city are of great significance to the expansion of migrant workers’consumption demand.