公共政策创新扩散的影响因素——基于31个省级居住证制度的数据分析

Factors influencing the innovation diffusion of public policy:Based on data analysis of 31 provinces'residence permit system

居住证制度是我国户籍制度改革过程的产物,被认为是现阶段地方政府管理流动人口、引导人口合理流动的第一选择。从2009年湖南省首次采纳居住证制度至今的十多年间,居住证制度已在全国省级政府间完成扩散,对于各省都采纳居住证制度的原因和该制度在全国大规模运用的特征,采用2009—2018年31个省级政府的面板数据,以政策创新扩散理论为研究视角,使用事件史分析法(EHA)对居住证制度创新扩散的内外部影响因素进行实证研究。研究发现:上级压力是影响居住证制度采纳的最重要因素;竞争压力和城镇化率也影响居住证制度的扩散,但存在负相关,与预期相反。对此,中央政府需要通过政策导向,推动下级政府采纳创新;地方政府间需要搭建良好的信息交流平台,拓宽信息交流渠道,加强居住证制度和信息技术的融合,不断优化居住证制度,充分发挥其在管理流动人口和保障公共服务方面的作用。

The residence permit system is the product of the reform process of our country's household registration system,considered as the first choice for local governments to manage the floating population and guide the rational flow of the population at this stage.In the more than ten years since Hunan province first adopted the residence permit system in 2009,the residence permit system has been spread among provincial governments.But why do different local governments adopt the same policies?What are the characteristics of such a large-scale adoption all over the country?This paper employs the panel data of 31 provincial governments from 2009 to 2018,takes the policy innovation diffusion theory as the research perspective,and uses the event history analysis(EHA)method to conduct empirical research on the internal and external factors affecting the innovation diffusion of the residence permit system.The study finds that the pressure from higher authorities is the most important factor affecting the adoption of the residence permit system,that competitive pressure and urbanization rate also affect the spread of the residence permit system,but there exists a negative correlation,contrary to expectations.In this regard,the central government needs to adopt policy guidance to promote the adoption of innovation by lower-level governments.Local governments need to set up a good information exchange platform,broaden information exchange channels,strengthen the integration of the residence permit system and information technology,continuously optimize the residence permit system,and give full play to its role in managing the floating population and ensuring public services.