短期资本开放对发展中国家弊远大于利吗

Is the Opening up of Short-term Capital is Far more Deleterious than Advantageous in Developing Countries?

短期资本开放虽然是发达国家的基本特征,但对发展中国家而言弊远大于利。中国之所以对短期资本大规模流动的经济效应存在分歧,根本原因还在于理论研究的不足。本文采用定性分析法研究认为,虚拟资本与实体经济的矛盾源于货币与商品的矛盾,短期资本大规模流动正是通过虚拟资本将实体经济推入危机的深渊;短期资本大规模流动是应发达国家过剩资本增值的需要而产生的,由于经济技术发展水平的差异,它不会对发达国家的核心产业造成损害,却会制造发展中国家经济的严重失衡从而最终爆发经济危机。中国改革开放四十余年确实取得了经济的巨大发展,但由于起点低,中国至今仍是一个典型的发展中国家,并正处于产业结构高度化的关键时期,最容易吸引国际游资的注意力。中国应该从宏观、产业和企业三个角度加强政府管理,抑制国际短期资本大规模流动对中国实体经济的侵蚀破坏效应,避免中国产业结构的严重失衡,保障中国经济的健康发展。

Although the opening up of short-term capital is the basic characteristic of developed countries,but it is far more deleterious than advantageous in developing countries.Chinese scholars have different opinions on the economic effect of short-term capital large-scale flow,the root reason is that theoretical study is deficient.By qualitative analysis this paper concludes that the contradiction between fictitious capital and real economy fundamentally comes from the conflict between money and commodity so that shortterm capital large-scale flow pushes real economy into crisis with the help of fictitious capital.Initially short-term capital large-scale flow comes from the need of excess capital increment in developed countries,since the economy and technology developing levels differs,short-term capital large-scale flow although does not harm to the core industries of developed countries but makes a serious imbalance of developing economy and brings final crisis.During the past forty years of Chinese reform and opening up the great economic advancement is realized,but contemporary China still is a typical developing country because the starting point is too low.While upgrading industry structure in China is crucial,international hot money easily keeps an eye on it.Chinese government management should be strengthened from three perspectives of macro,industry and enterprise,the aim is to restrain short-term capital large-scale flow from destroying Chinese real economy and avoid the serious imbalance of Chinese industry structure and guarantee the sound development of Chinese economy.