面向松树生长量的灰色模型GM(1,1)预测研究

Prediction Study of Grey Model GM(1,1)for Growth Volume of Pine

以94a树龄华山松(Pinusarmandii)解析木数据为原始资料,充分剖析灰色模型GM(1.1)数学原理,包括GM(1,1)模型一般形式、辩识算法、预测值的还原、模型预测值检验等数学规则,利用DPS数据处理系统9.50版,建立华山松GM(1,1)预测模型并检验,解决了名木古树生长量的预测难题.得到预测模型参数C=0.2652(很好),p=1.0000(可靠).验证了灰色模型GM(1,1)在松树生长量预测可靠性,该数学模型在面向树木随机生长预测方面有很好的应用前景.

This paper takes the analytical wood data of a 94-year-old Pinusarmandii as the original data,and uses the gray model GM(1.1) mathematical principle,including the general form of GM(1,1) model,the identification algorithm,and the prediction value reduction.Mathematical rules such as model predictive value test,using the DPS data processing system version 9.50,establish the Huashan pine GM(1,1) prediction model and test,to solve the prediction problem of the growth of famous trees and ancient trees.The predicted model parameters are obtained C= 0.2652(very good),p=1.0000(reliable).The reliability of gray model GM(1,1) in pine growth prediction is verified.The mathematical model has a good application prospect in the prediction of random growth of trees.