河北省自然灾害类应急预案编制现状及其影响因素分析

Spatio-temporal Distribution Characteristics of Natural Disaster Emergency Plan and Its Affecting Factors in Hebei Province

对比分析河北省旱灾、洪涝灾害、重污染天气、气象灾害、地震灾害与地质灾害的应急预案编制现状,揭示其预案编制分异特征,根据预案空间差异性,借鉴“地理探测器”模型探究其影响因素.结果表明:1)河北省重污染天气、气象灾害、洪涝灾害的预案配置比例高,旱灾、地震灾害预案配置率低.旱灾、地震、地质灾害等存在预案缺失状况,主要集中在张家口、沧州以及衡水等城市.2)河北省旱灾、重污染天气和气象灾害预案颁布频率比较集中,洪涝、地震灾害、地质灾害预案颁布时间较为分散.3)河北省自然灾害类预案编制数量空间分布差异的主要影响因素是行政导向型与技术导向型.结合研究结论,考虑加速京津冀一体化的重大国家战略及河北地区自然灾害风险区划,提出加强风险源探测识别的地理导向、应急预案跨界编制以及跨区域应急联动机制构建等建议.

By contrastive analysis of current situation of emergency plan preparation for drought,flood,heavy polluted weather,meteorological disaster,earthquake disaster,and geological disaster in Hebei Province,this thesis reveals the differentiation characteristics of its plan preparation.According to spatial difference of plan,the influencing factors are explored by the reference to the "Geographic Detector" model.The results showed that:(1) The allocation ratio of heavy polluted weather,and floods meteorological disasters in Hebei province is high,while that of drought and earthquake is low.There is a lack of preplan in drought,earthquake,geological and other hazards,mainly in Zhangjiakou City,Cangzhou City and Hengshui City.(2) The plans of drought,heavy pollution and meteorological disasters are promulgated relatively concentrated,while the plans of flood,earthquake disasters and geological disasters are promulgated more dispersed.(3) The main Factors affecting the spatial distribution characteristics of the number of natural disaster emergency plans in Hebei Province are administrative orientation and tedtechnology orientation.Combining with the conclusions of the study and considering the major national strategies for accelerating integration and natural disaster risk zoning in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,this paper put forward the proposal of strengthening geographical orientation of risk source detection and identification,cross-border preparation of emergency plans and establishment of regional emergency linkage mechanisms etc.