基于省际贸易视角的环境治理隐含成本研究

Research on The Cost of Emissions Embodied in Interprovincial Trade

我国区域经济发展迅速,省际贸易快速增长,由此带来了隐含污染省际转移问题,形成了隐含成本,造成了省份发展不均衡和区域经济发展的不可持续性。基于此,本文构建环境投入产出模型、隐含成本结构合理性评估模型、结构分解分析模型,选取泛京津冀区域的2007年和2010年的区域间投入产出数据,以SO2作为隐含污染物进行实证研究。研究表明:发达省份(北京、天津、山东)是隐含SO2的净输出省份,间接获得隐含SO2的经济收益;欠发达省份(河北、山西、内蒙古)是隐含SO2的净输入省份,承担隐含成本。发达省份隐含SO2的结构明显优于欠发达省份。负值的技术效应和正值的规模效应是造成隐含SO2改变的主要驱动效应,研究结论可作为改善省份的均衡发展、区域的可持续增长的决策参考。

With rapid development of regional economic integration and rapid growth of interprovincial trade,emissions embodied in interprovincial trade and the cost of emissions significantly cause unbalanced development of provinces and unsustainable regional economic development in China.Based on this,an environmental input-output model is first constructed in this paper to calculate the transfer amount of sulfur dioxide emissions embodied in interprovincial trade and the cost of emissions.Secondly,the emissions cost structural rationality assessment model is constructed to judge the rationality of sulfur dioxide emissions structure.Then,a structural decomposition analysis model is constructed to investigate the driving force of the change of sulfur dioxide emissions embodied in interprovincial trade.Finally,Pan-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is selected for empirical analysis.The data comes from the multi-regional Input-output table in 2007and 2010,China Statistical Yearbook,Provincial Statistical Yearbook,China Energy Statistical Yearbook and China Environmental Statistics Yearbook.An empirical study is conducted using sulfur dioxide emissions embodied in interprovincial trade.The results show that:First,the provinces for net sulfur dioxide emissions embodied in interprovincial trade outflow are developed provinces which obtain the economic benefits indirectly such as Beijing,Tianjin and Shandong.And Beijing is the biggest beneficiary.Meanwhile,the provinces for net sulfur dioxide emissions embodied in interprovincial trade inflow are developing provinces which bear the cost of emissions such as Hebei,Shanxi and Inner Mongolia.Hebei and Shanxi bear more emission cost for developed provinces.Second,the structure of sulfur dioxide embodied in interprovincial trade in developed provinces is clearly better than that of developing provinces.The growth of trade volume in interprovincial trade is difficult to compensate for the emissions cost undertaken by developing provinces.The most unreasonable sulfur dioxide structure is Shanxi.Third,the main driving forces are negative technical effect and positive scale effect,indicating that the improvement of the technical level can effectively reduce the cost of emissions,and the expansion of the industry scale will increase the cost of emissions.Fourth,according to the empirical research results,two policy recommendations are proposed:establishing the ecological compensation management mechanism under the regional linkage governance;and an investment adjustment mechanism based on SDA results.The conclusion can be used as an important reference for regional economic development decision-making,coordinate the balanced development of the provinces within the region,and promote the sustainable growth of the regional economy.