湖北以外省份新型冠状病毒肺炎病例谱特征和扩散强度初步分析

Preliminary analysis on COVID-19 case spectrum and spread intensity in different provinces in China except Hubei province

目的分析湖北以外省份新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)病例谱特征和扩散强度。方法从各省级卫生健康委员会官方网站获得每日疫情数据和病例信息,计算发病率、重症比例、病死率和扩散比。结果截至2020年3月20日,累计确诊12941例,死亡116例,各省份平均发病率为0.97/10万,平均重症比例为13.5%,平均病死率为0.90%。发病率前三省份是浙江(2.12/10万)、江西(2.01/10万)和北京(1.93/10万)。各地区病例谱特征不一致,重症比例前三省份是天津(45.6%)、新疆(35.5%)和黑龙江(29.5%);病死率前三省份是新疆(3.95%)、海南(3.57%)和黑龙江(2.70%)。各地区扩散情况也不一致,平均扩散比为0.98,扩散比最低的3个省份分别为西藏(0)、青海(0.20)和广东(0.23)。结论各地区采取的疫情防控措施卓有成效,遏制了COVID-19在中国进一步蔓延,提高了救治成效,但不同地区间的重症比例、病死率、扩散比存在明显差异。

Objective To analyze the characteristics of COVID-19 case spectrum and spread intensity in different provinces in China except Hubei province.Methods The daily incidence data and case information of COVID-19 were collected from the official websites of provincial and municipal health commissions.The morbidity rate,severity rate,case-fatality rate,and spread ratio of COVID-19 were calculated.Results As of 20 March,2020,a total of 12941 cases of COVID-19 had been conformed,including 116 deaths,and the average morbidity rate,severity rate and case-fatality rate were 0.97/100000,13.5%and 0.90%,respectively.The morbidity rates in Zhejiang(2.12/100000),Jiangxi(2.01/100000)and Beijing(1.93/100000)ranked top three.The characteristics of COVID-19 case spectrum varied from province to province.The first three provinces(autonomous region,municipality)with high severity rates were Tianjin(45.6%),Xinjiang(35.5%)and Heilongjiang(29.5%).The case-fatality rate was highest in Xinjiang(3.95%),followed by Hainan(3.57%)and Heilongjiang(2.70%).The average spread ratio was 0.98 and the spread intensity varied from province to province.Tibet had the lowest spread ratio(0),followed by Qinghai(0.20)and Guangdong(0.23).Conclusion The intervention measures were effective in preventing the spread of COVID-19 and improved treatment effect in China.However,there were significant differences among different regions in severity,case-fatality rate and spread ratio.