特朗普政府战略部署调整及对中国周边形势的影响

Strategic Adjustment of the Trump Administration and its Impacts on China’s Neighborhood

特朗普执政以来,中国是美国中长期首要战略竞争对手成为美国政治建制派精英共识。为维护美国的霸权,打压中国是现阶段美国战略部署调整的主要外部动因。鉴于相当一段时期内,中美战略竞争的核心领域将聚焦在经济、科技和亚太地区的影响力争夺,特朗普政府一方面缩减和调整美国在中东和欧洲地区的战略部署,另一方面通过落实“印太战略”的相关内容,加大美国在中国周边的干预力度,阻遏中国持续崛起的进程和不断拓展的地区影响力。尽管在美国的战略部署下,中美博弈加剧,但美国的亚太地区传统盟友和伙伴不愿明确在中美之间选边。近年来,中国与周边国家关系稳定和趋缓表明,美国在中国周边影响力有限,以及中国“一带一路”倡议和睦邻、安邻的周边外交政策取得一定积极效果。对于崛起进程中的中国而言,中美关系并非中国处理自身与周边关系的前提条件。中国需要立足周边客观现实,切实从双边、小多边和大多边视角切入,合理经营与周边国家的关系。

Since the Trump took office, it has become a consensus among US elites that China is a premier strategic competitor in the medium and long term.To maintain US dominance, containing China has becoming a driving force behind the strategic adjustment of US policies. China-US strategic competition has been focused on economic and technological field as well as influence in the Asia-Pacific. Accordingly, the Trump Administration has on one hand cut its strategic deployment in the Middle East and Europe, and stepped up its intervention in China’s neighborhood on the other hand in order to check China’s increasing regional influence. Despite the intensification of China-US rivalry, traditional allies of US in the Asia-Pacific are not willing to choose sides. Increasing stability in China’s neighborhood in recent years indicates that US influence in China’s neighborhood is limited and China’s "Belt and Road Initiative" as well as its neighborhood policy have achieved positive results.For China, its relations with the US is not a pre-condition for its relations with its neighborhood. China needs to carefully manage its relations with its neighborhood based on reality.