区域用水结构演化及其驱动因素识别

Identification of Regional Water Use Structure and Its Driving Factors

摸清水资源利用结构特征和演化规律,识别其驱动因素对区域最严格水资源管理制度实施和“三条红线”指标控制有重要参考意义。该文提出了一种区域用水结构演变规律揭示的信息熵方法和用水驱动因素识别的随机森林算法模式,以广东省为例,以识别区域经济与水资源工业化阶段为基础,揭示用水结构特征及其演变规律,识别了用水影响因素的重要度。结果表明:单一用水结构类型所占比例减小,各部门的用水比例更加均衡,用水系统的稳定性从珠三角往外逐步减小,用水结构的均衡性与地区的经济发展水平直接相关。总体而言,降雨和气温等自然因素对广东省的用水影响较小,农业、工业和人口等社会因素则为主要影响因子。

It is important to detect the evaluation law of water use structure and identify its driving factors for the strictest water resources management and indicator control of“Three Red Line”.Based on this,this paper proposed the information entropy method and the Random Forest(RF)algorithm model to analyzed the evaluation law of water use structure.The paper revealed the water structure evolution law and gave the importance order of the factors affecting water use based on the regional economy and the industrialization phase of water resources,in the case study of Guangdong province.The results showed that the percentage of single water use structure has been decreasing;water use amount for each water use sector has been more balanced;the stability of water use system has been decreasing from the Pearl River Delta(PRD)to its surrounding regions,suggesting that the balance of water use structure has a direct link with the city's economy development level.Overall,natural factors such as precipitation and temperature have a lower impact on water use of the Guangdong Province when compared to that of social factors including agriculture,industrial,and population.