扶贫改革试验区的减贫效应评估——基于合成控制法的研究

The Evaluation on Poverty Reduction Effect of Poverty Alleviation Reform Pilot Zone——A Study Based on Synthetic Control Method

扶贫改革试验区作为扶贫制度改革创新的试验田,承担着完善国家扶贫战略和政策体系、探索中长期扶贫发展道路的重要任务。本文利用2000—2018年市级面板数据,基于扶贫改革试验区设立的准自然试验,首次采用合成控制法评估了阜新、丽水、清远、宿迁、淄博、三明六个扶贫改革试验区设立的减贫效应。通过研究发现:合成控制组较好地复制了扶贫改革试验区设立之前阜新、丽水、清远、宿迁、淄博、三明六个扶贫改革试验区农民人均纯收入增长路径;六个扶贫改革试验区中丽水扶贫改革试验区的设立显著促进了农民人均纯收入增长,其余扶贫改革试验区的设立不具有显著的减贫效应;进一步分析表明,扶贫改革措施的执行差异(而非扶贫改革措施的采取差异)是各扶贫改革试验区减贫效应存在差异的主要原因。本文认为,扶贫改革措施的采取与其良好执行应同步进行,以充分发挥扶贫改革试验区自身的减贫效应及其示范与引领效应。

As an experiment field for reform and innovation of poverty alleviation system,poverty alleviation reform pilot zone(APRPA)undertakes important tasks of improving national poverty alleviation and policy system as well as exploring the road of poverty alleviation and development in the medium and long term.This article considered the establishment of APRA as a quasi-experiment and used the synthetic control method for the first time to evaluate the poverty reduction effect of Fuxin,Lishui,Qingyuan,Suqian,Zibo and Sanming APRPA based on the 2000~2018 municipal panel data.The result suggested that the growth path of the per capita net income of rural residents of Fuxin,Lishui,Qingyuan,Suqain,Zibo and Sanming before establishing of APAR were well replicated by the synthetic control group.The establishment of the Lishui poverty alleviation pilot reform zone promoted the per capita net income of rural resident growth,while the other six APRA zones did not have significant poverty reduction effects.Further analysis showed that the difference in the implementation rather than the adoption of poverty alleviation reform measures was the main reason for the difference in the poverty reduction effect of various APRPA zones.This article argued that the adoption of poverty alleviation reform measures and its implementation should be synchronized to better play the poverty reduction effect,demonstration effect,and leading effect of APRPA.