煤炭国际定价权的实证研究

An empirical study on coal international pricing power

选用国际煤炭市场中最有代表性的4个动力煤现货价格,欧洲ARA港、澳大利亚纽卡斯尔、南非理查德和秦皇岛Q5 500动力煤现货日价格作为样本数据,采用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应与方差分解方法,针对煤炭的国际定价权进行实证研究。研究结果显示:国际煤炭价格对国内煤炭价格具有一定的引导作用,而国内煤炭市场对于国外煤炭市场则影响较弱,中国煤炭市场在煤炭国际定价方面有较弱的话语权。中国可以加强对国际煤炭价格的影响力来提高能源资源定价的权力,加强煤炭市场的监管,制定有效的措施,减少国际煤炭市场带来的不确定性风险。

The four most representative thermal coal spot prices in the international coal market are selected,including the European ARA Port,Australia’s Newcastle,South Africa’s Richard and Qinhuangdao Q5 500 thermal coal spot prices as sample data. Johansen cointegration test,Granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition methods were used to conduct empirical research on the international pricing power of coal. The research results show that international coal prices have a certain guiding effect on domestic coal prices,while the domestic coal market has a weaker influence on foreign coal markets,the Chinese coal market has a weaker voice in international coal pricing. China can strengthen its influence on international coal prices to increase the power to price energy resources,strengthen the supervision of the coal market,and formulate effective measures to reduce the risk of uncertainty in the international coal market.