中美贸易摩擦背景下中国茶叶出口美国影响因素实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Influencing Factors of China's Tea Export to the United States under the Background of China and US Trade Friction

以经典引力模型为基础,创新性地添加了出口均价、汇率、人口规模、特朗普政策、中国出口茶叶品质、技术壁垒6个变量,构建新的引力模型,并运用联合国数据库2003—2018年的贸易数据,对中国茶叶出口美国高端市场进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,中国茶叶出口美国受到中国茶叶出口均价、汇率、美国的GDP水平、美国的人口数量、特朗普政策、出口茶叶的品质水平、美国的技术壁垒等综合因素的影响,其中出口均价、汇率、特朗普政策、技术壁垒、出口茶叶的品质水平起着负向的影响作用,美国的GDP水平、美国的人口数量起着正向的作用,且效果显著。在此基础上,提出了中国茶叶出口国际高端市场的对策与建议。

Based on the classic gravity model and previous research,six variables:the average tea export price in China,the exchange rate,the population of the United States,Trump policy,tea quality variables and technical barriers were innovatively added to build a new gravity model.The trade data of the United Nations from 2003 to 2018 were also used to carry out an empirical analysis of the high-end market of China's tea exports to the United States.The research results show that:China's tea exports to the United States were affected by comprehensive factors such as the average tea export price in China,the exchange rate,the GDP level in the United States,the population of the United States,the Trump policy,the quality level of export tea,the technical barriers of the United States.The main factors were the average export price,the negative effect of exchange rate,the GDP level in the United States,the positive effect of population in the United States.Meanwhile,the Trump policy,technical barriers and the quality of exported tea had a negative impact.On this basis,the countermeasures and suggestions for China's tea export to the international high-end market were put forward.