基于VAR模型的展览业与城市经济发展关系动态研究——以上海为例

Dynamic Research on the Relationship Between Exhibition Industry and Urban Economic Development Based on VAR——Taking Shanghai as an Example

展览业与城市经济发展的关系一直是会展研究的热点问题。本文基于2001-2018年上海展览业的时间序列数据,建立了以在上海举办的国际展览项目数量、国际展览项目展出面积和上海市国内生产总值为内生变量的VAR模型,进而通过脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解,研究了上海展览业与城市经济发展之间的动态关系以及变量间的贡献度。研究发现:展览业与城市经济之间呈双向作用关系;城市经济是展览业发展的基础,展览会对城市经济具有一定的促进作用,但作用有限;相对于数量的扩张,高质量的展览会对提升城市经济帮助更大。

As an emerging industry,the exhibition industry's economic impact was firstly studied by scholars.Specially the relationship between the exhibition industry and urban economic development has always been a hot topic in exhibition research.So what is the relationship between the exhibition industry and the urban economy?This paper takes the exhibition industry and the urban economy as the research objects,and selects the relatively developed city of Shanghai,China's exhibition industry center,as the research site,hoping that the research conclusion can answer the relationship between the exhibition industry and the urban economy.This paper reviews the existing research methods and main conclusions.It is found that the existing research may be more or less likely to overestimate the economic effects of the exhibition industry and the conclusions are all presented in a static way.This paper uses a new method to explore this topic in a dynamical way based on collecting the time series data of the Shanghai exhibition industry from 2001 to 2018,including the number of international exhibitions held in Shanghai,the exhibiting area of international exhibitions and the endogenous variables of Shanghai’s GDP,and using the VAR model to estimate it.Then impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition study are used to explore the dynamic relationship between Shanghai exhibition industry and urban economic development,and the contribution between variables is analyzed.The findings show that the exhibition industry and the urban economy have mutual influence,and there is a state of coordinated development between the economy and the exhibition industry,in other words,the role of the exhibition industry and the urban economy is mutually influenced.The exhibition industry will affect the city economy,and the urban economy will also affect the development of the exhibition industry;the development level of the exhibition industry is largely driven by the urban economy,in general,the better the city economy is,the higher level of development of the exhibition industry will be;compared with the number of exhibitions,high-quality exhibitions are more helpful to enhance the urban economy,especially the exhibitions with large exhibiting areas.Therefore,on the basis of drawing the above conclusions,the author believes that the following suggestions are proposed,hoping to provide a certain reference for the development of the exhibition industry:(1)Local governments should find new economic growth points based on their own resource endowments and combine local industrial advantages,and embark on a new development model of“industry+exhibition”,This development model can be adapted to local conditions,consider local superior resources,and can easily form a brand exhibition;(2)Cities need to fully consider the theme,scale and brand influence of existing exhibitions,then formulate corresponding support policies to encourage and support existing exhibitions to expand their scale and improve quality,cancel subsidies for exhibitions with poor returns;(3)When formulating the fund-based incentives policy,it’s better to focus on those exhibition projects that help to improve the city's characteristics and optimize the urban industrial structure.Finally,limitations of this research are discussed.