上游产能能够缓解供给冲击的影响吗?——金融危机视角的实证分析

Could Upstream Supply Capacity Mitigate the Negative Shock of Foreign Supply?An Empirical Analysis from the Perspective of Financial Crisis

本文基于2006年到2009年中国工业企业数据库和海关贸易数据,以全球性金融危机这一外生冲击作为切入点,考察了中间产品进口的供给冲击对纯内销企业总产出的影响。实证结果表明,金融危机发生后,受到国外中间品负面供给冲击的影响,企业用国内中间品替代了进口中间品投入,中间品进口对纯内销企业总产出的正向贡献明显下降。上下游生产链分析表明,上游行业产能缓冲了中间品进口的供给冲击对企业总产出的负面影响。本文的研究为理解中间产品进口对我国企业绩效的影响提供了新的思路。根据本文的研究,完善供给端的生产能力是缓解供给冲击的有效手段。

Based on the database of China's industrial enterprises and customs trade data from 2006 to 2009,and taking the financial crisis as an exogenous shock,this paper examines the impact of intermediate input imports on the total output of pure domestic sales enterprises.The results show that after the financial crisis,due to the negative shock of foreign supply,the positive contribution of intermediate input imports to the total output of pure domestic sales enterprises decreases significantly.We propose that firms can substitute the intermediate input imports by domestic intermediate inputs.Based on the analysis of the upstream and downstream production chains,we find that the production capacity of purely domestic enterprises in the upstream industry buffers the negative impact of intermediate product imports on the total output of the company.The benchmark conclusions of this paper hold for a series of robustness tests.The research in this article provides suggestions for coping with foreign supply shocks.