基于可拓云模型的干旱区水资源安全评价——以石河子垦区为例

Assessment of water resource security in an arid area based on an extension cloud model:A case study of Shihezi District

干旱区水资源安全状况具有一定典型性和区域特色,资源性缺水的实质导致水资源开发利用过程中出现许多矛盾与问题,针对目前干旱区水资源安全评价指标体系的不全面性、多样性,利用最严格水资源管理制度下的"三条红线"指标体系为框架,结合生态环境,建立了包含24个指标的干旱区水资源安全评价指标体系。通过合作博弈理论确定组合权重,建立基于可拓云模型的干旱区水资源安全评价模型,以石河子垦区为研究区,综合评价2007—2017年区域水资源安全状况。结果表明:石河子垦区水资源安全状况在时间序列上由不安全向基本安全转变;用水总量子系统在基本安全与不安全等级波动;用水效率子系统和纳污控制子系统经历了不安全—基本安全—安全的转变过程;生态环境子系统经历了不安全—安全—基本安全的转变趋势。

The water resource security situation in arid areas has certain typical and regional characteristics.The essence of water resource shortages causes many contradictions and problems in the process of water resource development and utilization.In view of the current incompleteness and diversity of water resource safety evaluation index systems in arid areas,we established a water resource safety evaluation index system with 24 indicators using the"three red lines"indicator system with the most stringent water resource management system as a framework combined with ecological environmental factors,and determined the combined weights through cooperative game theory.The cloud model’s water resource safety evaluation model for arid areas is based on the Shihezi District as a research area,and comprehensively evaluates the regional water resource security situation in2007-2017.The results show that the water resource security status in Shihezi District changed from unsafe to a basic level of safety over time;the total water consumption subsystem fluctuated between a basic level of safety and an unsafe level;the water efficiency subsystem and the pollution control subsystem went from insecure to a basic level of safety to safe,and the ecosystem subsystem did likewise.