中国人口就近与远程城镇化的区域发展及其影响因素

Regional Development and Its Determinants of Adjacent versus Distant Population Urbanization in China

文章从行政区划和时间距离两个维度出发,提出以县级行政区为基础地域单元、设定公路交通就近时间距离阈值为2小时和4小时两种情况下的人口就近、远程城镇化的量化定义和测度方法,并以此分析中国就近和远程城镇化的区域发展特征及其影响因素。研究发现:北部多数省份以就近城镇化发展为主,南部多数省份就近和远程城镇化发展较为平衡,主要人口迁入省份和地广人稀省份以远程城镇化发展为主。人均GDP、非农产业比重及平均海拔高度的提高与4小时阈值下就近城镇化发展呈正向关系,户籍人口城镇化水平的上升、人口密度和地形起伏度的增加则对其有负面影响,人口净迁入率、到最近大城市时间的增大有利于远程城镇化发展;受其他因素的综合作用,4小时阈值下就近迁移的城镇化贡献值随经度增大而增大的趋势强于远程迁移城镇化,2小时阈值下远程迁移的城镇化贡献值随纬度增大而减小的趋势强于就近迁移城镇化。

Combining geographical and temporal dimensions,this paper proposes a urbanization measurement using county as basic geographical unit and traveling distance of a 2-hour or 4-hour driving as the criteria of adjacent urbanization.It explores current regional development characteristics and the proximate determinants of adjacent and distant urbanization.The study finds that adjacent urbanization makes a greater contribution to the urbanization in most northern provinces,whilst the contribution of distant urbanization is equivalent to that of adjacent urbanization in southern provinces;the provinces that attract in-migrants nationwide and the sparsely populated provinces rely more heavily on distant urbanization.The contribution of adjacent urbanization(within 4-hour driving distance)increases with GDP per capita,the proportion of non-agricultural industries and average altitudes.It decreases with increasing registered population urbanization rate,population density,and the undulation of topography.The contribution of distant urbanization increases with the level of net in-migration and the distance to the nearest center cities.The impact of longitude is greater for adjacent urbanization than for distant urbanization under the 4-hour-driving criteria.And the impact of latitude is greater for the distant urbanization under the 2-hour-driving criteria.