中国女性婚姻的推迟与补偿

Postponement and Recuperation of First Marriage of Chinese Women

中国女性推迟结婚,结婚率下降和初婚年龄的提高引起社会的广泛关注。文章使用1990、2000和2010年人口普查数据,依据年龄别初婚频率、曾婚比例及婚姻推迟、补偿和补偿指数指标,分析女性1930~1985年出生队列婚姻推迟和补偿情况,以及1965~1980年出生队列婚姻推迟和补偿的城乡差异。结果表明,1930~1985年出生队列,各年龄曾婚比例下降、婚姻推迟,婚姻的推迟和补偿存在城乡差异,受教育程度的提高对女性婚姻具有推迟效应。1930~1970年全国出生队列婚姻推迟得到完全补偿,1975~1980年婚姻推迟最终虽未完全补偿,但补偿指数较高,终身未婚比例很低。1985年出生队列补偿指数比之前的出生队列明显降低,终身未婚比例增加,晚婚转变为不婚的可能性增加。

Chinese women delay marriage,the marriage rate is decreasing and the mean age at first marriage is increasing,which has aroused widespread concerns in the society.Using the 1990,2000 and 2010 census data,according to the age-specific rate of first marriage,proportion of ever-married,marriage postponement,marriage recuperation,and the recuperation index,the paper analyses marriage postponement and recuperation of the women in the birth cohorts of 1930-1985,the rural-urban difference of women’s marriage postponement and recuperation in the birth cohorts of 1965-1980,and its effect resulted from women’s education improvement.The results indicate a decreasing proportion of ever-married and marriage postponement in the birth cohorts of 1930-1985.The rural-urban difference of marriage postponement and recuperation exists.The improvement of women’s education has a delaying effect on marriage.In the birth cohorts of 1930-1970,marriage postponement was completely recuperated.Even though marriage postponement did not completely recuperate in the birth cohorts of 1975-1980,the recuperation index was high and the proportion of never-marrying women was very low.However,in the birth cohorts of 1985,the recuperation index was significantly lower than that in the older cohorts.The proportion of never-marrying women increases,and the possibility of marriage delay turning into marriage forgoing also increases.