实际生育二孩人群分析——基于上海市的调查

An Analysis of the Families Actually Having a Second Child:Based on the Survey in Shanghai

文章基于2017年针对已生育二孩的上海户籍夫妇的问卷调查数据,并与其他相关调查进行比较,对生育政策调整以来实际生育二孩的人群及其生育原因进行分析。结果发现,近几年上海市生育二孩的大多是20世纪70年代末和80年代出生的女性;文化程度和收入水平均较高,有祖辈帮忙照料孩子,女方不在业或工作灵活度较高、强度较低,第一个孩子是女孩的夫妇更有可能生育二孩。拥有相对充足育儿资源的家庭更可能生育第二个孩子,以满足对孩子的情感需求。文章认为,制定合理的公共政策,有针对性地减轻家庭的生育养育成本,是进一步释放生育潜力的有效路径。

This paper analyzes the families actually having a second child since the adjustment of the fertility policy,based on a self-organized survey of the couples registered in Shanghai in 2017 who have had a second birth in the past three years.The results show that most of the women who have a second child were born in the late 1970s and 1980s.Couples having higher education,higher incomes,a full-time housewife or one who works more flexibly and less intensively,having parents’support for child care,and those whose first child is a girl,are more likely to have a second child.It reveals that the families having the second child tend to be those with sufficient childcare resources,and more likely be driven by emotional desire.It thus suggests that making public policies to reduce childbearing/rearing costs for families may be an efficient way to release fertility potential.