从绝对贫困到相对贫困:中国农村贫困的动态演化

From Absolute Poverty to Relative Poverty:the Dynamic Evolution of Rural Poverty in China

2020年,现行标准下中国农村贫困人口将基本消除,但这并不意味着贫困的终结,中国的扶贫工作重心将由解决绝对贫困向缓解相对贫困转变。利用中国家庭收入调查数据(CHIP)2002、2013、2018年调查数据,分析中国农村地区相对贫困状况及其动态变化,并对缓解相对贫困的可行政策效果进行评估,发现中国农村地区相对贫困发生率逐渐上升,部分特殊人群的贫困发生率较高依然是相对贫困人口的典型特征。新农保、最低社会保障支出和政策性惠农补贴等政府转移支付对于缓解农村相对贫困具有一定作用。

In 2020,the poverty in rural areas will be basically eliminated when we use the current standard to estimate,but it does not mean the end of poverty.The focus of poverty alleviation in China will change from solving absolute poverty to alleviating rela⁃tive poverty.Based on the survey data of Chinese Household Income Project(CHIP)in 2002,2013 and 2018,this paper analyses the dynamic changes of relative poverty in rural areas of China,and evaluates the effect of feasible policies to alleviate relative poverty.We find that the incidence of relative poverty in rural areas is increasing gradually,and the incidence of poverty in some special groups are higher,which is still a typical feature of the relative poor.In the aspect of alleviating relative poverty,government transfer payments such as the New Rural Pension Scheme,Subsistence Allowance and Policy Subsidy for farmers play a certain role in rural areas.