国际石油价格波动对中国股市的影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of International Oil Price Fluctuations on China's Stock Market

中国的快速发展与石油进出口需求密切相关,随着中国石油对外依赖度的不断加深,国际石油价格的波动会对我国股市的冲击也在增加。首先通过将国内相关学者对国际油价波动影响中国股市的相关文献进行总结以建立理论基础。然后对影响国际油价变动的因素进行理论分析。接着通过建立VAR模型对国际油价对我国股市的影响进行实证分析。最后证实:国际油价的波动能够引起上证指数的同向波动,故提出相应政策建议。

China's rapid development is closely related to the demand for oil imports and exports.With the deepening of China's dependence on foreign oil,the impact of the fluctuation of international oil prices on China's stock market will also increase.Firstly,it establishes a theoretical basis by summarizing relevant domestic scholars'literature on the impact of the fluctuation of international oil prices on the China's stock market.Then the factors that affect the fluctuation of international oil prices are analyzed theoretically.Then through the establishment of a VAR model,an empirical analysis of the impact of international oil prices on China's stock market is conducted.Finally,it is proved that the fluctuation of international oil prices can cause the codirectional fluctuation of Shanghai Composite index,so the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.