基于灾害蔓延理论的轨道交通网络拥堵传播仿真分析

Simulation and Analysis of Congestion Propagation in Rail Transit Network Based on Disaster Spreading Theory

建立基于灾害蔓延理论的轨道交通网络拥堵传播模型,对影响拥堵传播状况的各类因素进行了仿真测试。研究结果表明:当仿真过程不断进行时,各类车站形成的拥堵传播范围都表现出持续扩大的现象,之后到达一个相对稳定的状态,并且各类车站在拥堵范围与传播速度方面也存在显著差异性。在整个交通网络系统中,换乘站可以产生最大的拥堵影响范围并获得最快的传播速度。随着初始拥堵强度时间的增加,拥堵传播数表现出快速增加的变化规律,在初始拥堵强度时间2s时达到了稳定程度,之后表现不明显。当初始拥堵强度时间延长时,无法通过车站自身修复来达到控制拥堵传播效果。

A congestion propagation model of rail transit network based on disaster propagation theory is established,and various factors influencing the congestion propagation are simulated.The results show that:when the simulation process continues,the congestion propagation range formed by various stations shows a phenomenon of continuous expansion,and then reaches a relatively stable state.Moreover,there are significant differences in the congestion range and propagation speed between various stations.In the whole transportation network system,transfer stations can produce the maximum impact range of congestion and obtain the fastest propagation speed.With the increase of the initial congestion intensity time,the congestion propagation number shows a rapidly increasing change rule,reaching a stable degree when the initial congestion intensity time is 2s,and then it is not obvious on the surface.When the initial congestion intensity time continues to increase,the station's own repair ability cannot achieve the control of congestion propagation.