地方政府的基本养老服务水平何以提升?--基于地级行政区数据的混合研究设计

How Can Basic Elderly Care Service Level Be Improved--A Mixed-method Design on Data at City Level in China

地方政府基本养老服务水平何以提升?既有研究聚焦在微观个体需求和宏观社会经济体系的研究,无法解释与理论相悖的事实。在整合社会需要理论和福利多元主义理论的基础上,通过混合研究设计实证检验了“需求驱动”和“供给驱动”对基本养老服务水平的影响效果与机制。回归分析发现,需求驱动及供给驱动中的政府维度、市场维度和社会维度显著影响基本养老服务水平。运用定性比较分析(QCA)进一步打开经济发达地区和欠发达地区各要素相互驱动的逻辑黑箱,发现需求驱动、供给驱动中的政策支持和社会组织数量是经济欠发达地区的核心驱动机制。因此,可通过完善养老服务政策体系和支持社会组织发展缓解老龄化治理压力,突破既有经验借鉴“唯经济发展论”的怪圈。

How can basic elderly care service level be improved?Existing research focuses on the consideration of factors of micro-individual needs and macro-social economic systems,but fails to explain facts that contradict the theory.This study integrates the theory of social needs and the theory of welfare pluralism,then empirically tests the effect and mechanism of demand drive and supply drive on the development level of basic elderly care services.The regression analysis has found that the government,the market and the social dimensions in demand drive and supply drive significantly affect the level of basic elderly care services.Using qualitative comparative analysis(QCA)to further open the black box of the mutually-oriented logic between the economically developed and underdeveloped regions,it is found that in economically underdeveloped regions,policy support and the number of social organizations in demand drive and supply drive are the core driving mechanisms.Therefore,it can alleviate the pressure of aging governance by improving the policy system of elderly care service and supporting the development of social organizations,breaking through the vicious circle of“only economic development theory”for reference from existing experience.