敏感用户电压暂降损失风险评估的模糊推理模型

Fuzzy Reasoning Model for Risk Assessment of Voltage Sag Loss for Sensitive Users

评估敏感用户电压暂降损失是开展针对性治理措施的前提,中断概率评估是其中的关键。但不同用户电压暂降数据质量及其工业结构的差异性使得评估工作不易开展。该文提出设备组合和工艺参数电压暂降响应失效概率模型,获得工业子过程失效概率空间,由此建立暂降特征与失效风险间的模糊关系,实现了暂降事件的分类模糊化处理。通过引入自适应模糊逻辑门刻画子过程间的故障逻辑联系,提升了暂降损失评估体系的适应能力。对相关企业进行算例分析,所得损失评估结果整体偏差较小且相对稳定,体现出较好的鲁棒性与适应性,以及其在优质供电方案设计与规划方面的价值。

Voltage sag loss assessment for sensitive users is the premise of mitigation measures and the users’ interruption possibility assessment is the key. However, the difference in voltage sag data quality and industrial structure of different users makes the evaluation work difficult to carry out. In this paper, based on the proposed voltage sag response failure probability model of equipment combination and process parameters, the sag failure probability space was obtained. Further, the fuzzy relationship between sag characteristics and failure probability was established, and the classification and fuzzification of sag events were realized, which can reduced the sensitivity of the method. By introducing adaptive fuzzy logic gates to map fault logic links between sub-processes, the adaptability of the evaluation system was improved. Case studies show that the overall deviation of the loss assessment results are small and relatively stable, showing better robustness and adaptability, which is valuable for customizing power quality service.