中国经济中的垂直市场与企业动态--基于DSGE的模型研究

Vertical Market Structure with Firm Dynamics in Chinese Economy—A study Based on the DSGE Model

本文构建了一个研究中国经济的模型,其特征是体现了国有企业与民营企业的不对称并强调了它们之间的垂直市场结构;同时,此模型还允许企业自由进入与退出,因此可以研究企业动态。使用该模型进行数值模拟的结果能够较好地拟合中国经济的宏观波动,而且我们发现生产率冲击与偏好冲击对于中国的经济波动有着重要影响,这是因为企业的自由进出将生产率冲击对经济波动的影响放大。通过对这一理论模型进行政策实验,我们发现上游民营企业所受到的市场扭曲最为明显,因此可以通过采用针对性的政策,例如降低其市场准入门槛或者鼓励民企创新等方法,来达到最有效地缓解市场扭曲、提高产出的目的。这将有助于改善上下游市场中企业分布不均衡的现象并提升整体资源分配效率。

This paper proposes a DSGE model to model the Chinese economy,incorporating features like asymmetric between SOE and POE,vertical market structure and firm dynamics.Simulation results show that this multi-sector model is capable of generating the macroeconomic fluctuations observed in China and these fluctuations are mainly explained by the productivity shock and preference shock.This is because firm dynamics amplify the impact of productivity shock on output.By conducting policy experiments,we find upstream private firms are the most constrained,allowing us to alleviate market distortions most efficiently by using policies targeting at this sector.Policies like decreasing entry barriers or promoting innovation will facilitate the economy to restore more efficient resource allocations and market structures by allowing more private firms in the upstream.