技术周期、经济高质量发展与稳定金融——中国经济动能转换的金融—技术路径

Technology Cycle,High Quality Economic Development and Stabilizing Finance:The Financial-technical Path of the Conversion of China’s Economic Momentum

本文基于马克思主义—新熊彼特学派的信用—技术创新—经济周期理论指出,在当代技术竞争格局中,实现以自主技术创新引领经济高质量发展,是技术—经济发展规律的必然要求;信息技术革命的导入为中国技术路径向内源性转变带来了机遇,中国的技术追赶和工业化为之奠定了物质技术基础;"新常态"标志着我国进入新旧技术周期"三阶段+转折点"的特殊交叠区间,因此不仅面临比美国等技术核心国家更复杂特殊的矛盾,还承受多重金融风险;信用结构与技术周期产生摩擦,不能适应自主技术创新而导致虚拟资本与实体经济疏离是金融风险的本质。构建高质量发展的金融—技术路径,首先要纾解风险、稳定金融,然后建立服务于多元化、分散化技术创新的金融支持机制。

Based on the theory of credit-technological innovation-economic cycle of Marxism-New Schumpeter school,this paper points out that in the contemporary technological competition,leading China’s high-quality economic development by independent technological innovation is an inevitable requirement of the technology-economic law.The introduction of the information technology revolution has brought opportunities to the transformation of China’s technology from exogenous path to endogenous path,and China’s industrialization characterized by technological catch-up has laid the material and technological foundation for this transformation.The"new normal"signifies that China has entered into a special overlapping range of the new and the old technology cycles characterized by"three stages+turning point".Therefore,China not only faces more complicated and special contradictions,but also bears multiple financial risks.The essence of financial risk is the separation of virtual capital from the real economy,which is caused by the friction between the credit structure and the technological cycle and the inability of finance to adapt to the needs of independent technological innovation.Building a financial-technological path for high-quality development requires alleviating risks,stabilizing finance,and then establishing a financial support mechanism that serves diversified and decentralized technological innovation.