人口结构变化、城镇化刘易斯转折与区域人口流动趋势——从整体到分区的统计分析

Demographic Changes,Urbanization in Lewis Transition Period and Regional Population Movement Trend:Statistical Analysis from the Total to the Partition of Population

中国城镇化从出现劳工荒现象开始,就进入了一个被称为"刘易斯转折"的时间段。其中,人口流动规模和趋势的变化是这个时间段国内外研究的重点,但是尚缺乏从整体到分区域的统计分析。本文以定量的方式阐述中国城镇化在刘易斯转折期面临的人口规模和结构变化的约束条件,意在将一些容易隐藏和忽略的城镇化人口流动问题以直观的方式展现出来,特别是从分区域角度将中国七大区域的劳动力规模和价格(工资)方面的变化同近年来中国城镇化所经历的刘易斯转折结合起来,凸显城镇化刘易斯转折时期中国所面临的客观经济事实,以为中国各区域以及总体人口控制政策决策提供参考。

China’s urbanization entered a period called"Lewis Turning"from the occurence of labor shortage.The changes in the scale and the trend of population flow are the focus of research at home and abroad during this period,but there is still a lack of statistical analysis from the total to the partition of population.This paper explains the constraints of China’s urbanization on the size and structural changes of the population during the Lewis transition period in a quantitative way.It intends to show some urbanized population movements that are easy to hide and to be ignored in an intuitive way.Especially,this paper combines the changes in the size and the price(wage)of labor in China’s seven regions with the Lewis transition experienced by China’s urbanization in recent years,highlighting the objective economic facts faced by China during the Lewis transition period of urbanization in order to provide reference for China’s regional and overall population control policy decisions.