城镇化质量、房价对产业结构升级的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Urbanization Quality and Housing Price on Industrial Structure Upgrade

基于2004-2018年中国31个省市区面板数据,运用面板回归模型和中介效应模型,考量城镇化质量、房价对产业结构升级的影响。结果表明:提升城镇化质量推动了产业结构升级,且西部作用更显著;全国、东部和西部房价上涨推动产业结构升级,在城镇化质量对产业结构升级的影响中,房价中介效应分别为22.5%、22.6%和19.3%,中部房价上涨抑制了产业结构升级。鉴此,应全面提升城镇化质量、加速产城融合进程、建立差异化的房价调控机制等。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2018,the panel regression model and the intermediary effect model are used to verify the impact of urbanization quality and housing prices on the upgrading of industrial structure.The results show that the improvement in the quality of urbanization across the country and in all regions has promoted the upgrading of the industrial structure,and the western region has the most significant impact.Rising housing prices across the country,eastern and western regions promote the upgrading of the industrial structure,and housing prices have shown a significant mediating effect in the impact of the upgrading of urbanization quality and promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure;rising housing prices in the central region inhibit the upgrading of the industrial structure,and the mediating effect of housing prices is not significant.In view of these,policy recommendations such as comprehensively improving the quality of urbanization,accelerating the integration of industry and city development,and establishing a differentiated housing price control mechanism are proposed.