基于ARIMA模型的环境监测系统设计与实现

Design and Implementation of Integrated Environmental Monitoring System Based on ARIMA Model

运载火箭存储发射过程中,推进剂的加注、转注、存储和发射,都可能存在泄漏安全问题[1];一旦发生泄漏事故,推进剂的易燃、易爆、毒性和腐蚀性特点,将引发不良的后果,严重影响试验任务[2-3];文章提出的环境监测系统,采用B/S架构设计,通过在关键位置布置的高精度传感器,实时采集发射区周边环境信息,运用大数据分析技术和ARIMA模型,实现了对发射区推进剂泄漏状况、环境健康状况、空调设备运行状态和人员健康状态监测预警,预判推进剂浓度变化趋势及扩散情况;经实际应用,该系统能有效降低试验任务的风险系数,符合运载火箭存储环境在平时与应急两种状态下的监测与评估功能要求,满足发射场工作环境智能化监测预警建设需求,具有一定的推广价值。

During the storage and launch process of the carrier rocket,filling,transfusion,storage and launch of the propellantsmay have the leak safety issues.In the event of a leak,flammable,explosive,toxic and corrosive characteristics of propellants,will be the bad consequences and the seriously affect for the test mission.The environmental monitoring system is proposed in this paper,it adopts B/S architecture design,the real-time environmental information around the launch area is collected by the high-precision sensors arranged in the key position,it applies the big data analysis techniques and ARIMA model,realizes the monitoring and early warning of the propellant leakage,the environmental health conditions,the operation state of the air-conditioning equipment and the health status of the personnel in the launch area,calculates the change trend and diffusion of the propellant concentration.After practical application,this system can effectively reduce the risk of the test task,conforms to the monitoring and evaluation function requirements in the normal and emergency states for the storage environment of the launch vehicle,meets the construction requirements of the intelligent monitoring and early warning for the working environment of the launch site,should be promoted.