中国海水养殖碳汇经济价值时空演化及影响因素分析

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of the economic value for mariculture carbon sinks in China

中国是全球海水养殖第一强国,养殖产量占世界总产量的70%以上。根据碳税法和人工造林法测算海水养殖碳汇经济价值,并探讨时空分异特征;采用LMDI指数分解法,分析海水养殖业碳汇能力影响因素。研究结果表明:①2008—2017年碳汇量和经济价值均呈上升趋势,2017年经济价值达到91.8亿元;各省份碳汇效率排名波动较大,效率和经济价值相对差异和绝对差异逐渐缩小,经济价值处于持续增长趋势。②时空演化上,经济价值呈现出泛环渤海、泛长三角、泛珠三角三足鼎立分布态势,时空演化揭示了中国碳汇渔业在科学引导,合理布局,陆海统筹,试点先行,全国推广的演化机理,表明中国碳汇渔业发展态势趋好。③碳汇能力影响因素中,价值效应大于规模效应和结构效应,渔业相关的法律、法规对规模效应和结构效应的影响显著。研究海水养殖碳汇有利于促进海洋渔业高质量发展,以期为开发利用海洋渔业碳汇提供理论依据。

China is the world’s largest mariculture country,and its mariculture output accounts for more than 70%of the world’s total.First,according to the data from China Fishery Statistical Yearbook,the carbon sinks of mariculture in each province(autonomous region)from 2008 to 2017 are estimated.It is found that the carbon sinks of mariculture in China were on the rise,and the average carbon sink efficiency was stable at about 8.4%.After 2011,the value reached more than 1 million tons.Second,we adopted the carbon tax law and artificial afforestation method to calculate the economic value of mariculture carbon sink,and then examined the time-space differentiation characteristics.Besides,we used LMDI index decomposition method to analyze the factors influencing the carbon sink capacity of mariculture.The results show that:(1)Both carbon sink and economic value showed an upward trend from 2008 to 2017,and the economic value reached 9.18 billion yuan in 2017;the ranking of carbon sink efficiency of various provinces(autonomous regions)fluctuated greatly,and the relative and absolute differences in efficiency and economic value were gradually shrinking.The economic value keeps a continuous growth trend.(2)In terms of spatio-temporal evolution,economic value presents a three-legged distribution situation in the Pan-Bohai Rim,Pan-Yangtze River Delta,and Pan-Pearl River Delta.The spatio-temporal evolution reveals that carbon sink fishery is scientifically guided,rationally distributed,land-sea coordination,and pilot projects first in China,the evolutionary mechanism of national promotion indicates that the development trend of carbon sink fishery is getting better.(3)Among the influencing factors of carbon sink capacity,value effect is greater than scale effect and structure effect,and fishery-related laws and regulations have significant influence on scale effect and structure effect.Research on mariculture carbon sinks is conducive to promoting the high-quality development of marine fisheries,in order to provide a theoretical basis for the development and utilization of marine fishery carbon sinks.