老龄化对高技术产业技术创新的影响研究——基于子行业、企业规模异质性的分析

Research on the Impact of Aging on Technological Innovation of High-tech Industry——Analysis Based on the Heterogeneity of Sub-industries and Enterprise Scale

本文利用省级面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型实证研究了人口老龄化对高技术产业技术创新的影响,并深入探讨了高技术产业不同子行业、不同规模企业所受影响的异质性。结果表明,人口老龄化对高技术产业整体,特别是与老龄人口密切相关的子行业以及大规模企业的技术创新具有显著的正U型影响。可见,在老龄化前期,高技术产业技术创新受到的负向影响更为突出,但随着老龄化程度的加深,正向影响将可能会得到更多的体现。

Using provincial panel data,the two-way fixed effects model is used to empirically study the impact of population aging on technological innovation in high-tech industries,and in-depth study of the heterogeneity of different sub-sectors and en⁃terprises of different sizes in high-tech industries.The results show that population aging has a significant positive U-shaped impact on the overall high-tech industry,especially the sub-sectors closely related to the aging population and the technological innovation of large-scale enterprises.It can be seen that in the early stage of aging,the negative impact of technological innovation in hightech industries is more prominent,but as the degree of aging deepens,the positive impact will likely be more reflected.