市场环境下基于组合赋权TOPSIS专利评价模型的技术预测综合评价研究

Comprehensive Evaluation of Technology Prediction Based on Combination Weighted TOPSIS Patent Evaluation Model in the Market Environment

专利分析是技术预测的重要手段,考虑市场影响、操作性强的专利技术预测方法可以为特定领域研究人员提供准确、有用的技术参考和决策支持,也可以为专利预测提供新的思路和建议。文中形成了考虑市场影响、基于专利质量的专利技术预测评价指标体系,构建了基于组合赋权TOPSIS方法的专利预测评价模型,同时根据技术成熟度S曲线判断技术生命周期,采用文本聚类方法分阶段获取技术领域的技术集群,并以实际案例进行了TOPSIS专利评价技术的预测应用。结果表明:基于组合赋权TOPSIS的专利评价模型较为客观有效,基于专利成熟度判断和专利技术集群聚类的整体和分阶段技术预测方法可操作性强,可以获取更多有效信息。

Patent analysis is one of the most important means for technology prediction.The patent technology prediction method with strong operability and considering market influence can provide accurate and useful technical reference and decision support for researchers in specific fields,and also provide new ideas and suggestions for patent prediction.Firstly,we built the evaluation index system considering the market influence for patent technology prediction,and constructed a patent prediction evaluation model based on combination weighting TOPSIS method.Then,the technology life cycle is judged according to the technology maturity S curve.For the technologies in the growth stage,the text clustering method is adopted to obtain the technology clusters in the technology field by stages.Moreover,the application of TOPSIS patent evaluation technology is carried out based on a practical case.The results show that the patent evaluation model based on combination weighting TOPSIS is more objective and effective,and the overall and phased technology prediction method based on patent maturity judgment and patent technology cluster clustering is more operable,which can obtain more effective information.