世界服务贸易网络分析——基于二元/加权视角和QAP方法

Network Analysis of World Service Trade Web——Based on Binary/Weighted Dimension and QAP Method

随着国际服务贸易的迅猛发展,其结构呈现出向复杂化、立体化与网络化发展的趋势,传统单边或双边视角下的因果分析已经不能解释现阶段国际服务贸易格局变化。本文分别在二元和加权视角下构建2005—2016年世界服务贸易网络,对网络的结构特征进行分析,并采用二次指派程序法对世界服务贸易网络进行解构和结构演化解释。结果表明:世界服务贸易网络整体密度不高,但日趋紧密,且高度对称;网络中正/负度同配性同时存在,随着时间推移网络结构由“核心-边缘”形态变为“核心-中间-边缘”形态。给出各国的随机游走中介中心性排名,二次指派程序法分析表明世界服务贸易网络随时间的演进是一个自稳定渐进过程,各国间的多维距离变量可以解释世界服务贸易网络结构演变的3.1%。

With the rapid development of international service trade,its structure has shown a trend of complexity,three-dimensionality,and networking.The current chan-ges in the pattern of international service trade can not be explained by causal analysis from unilateral or bilateral perspectives.This paper constructed 2005—2016 World Service Trade Web(WSTW)from binary and weighted dimensions,analyzed the structural characteristics of the network,and through the Quadratic Assignment Procedure(QAP)method deconstructed and explained the evolution of the structure of the WSTW.The results are as follows:(1)The overall density of the WSTW is not high,but the WSTW is is becoming denser and sorely symmetrical.(2)The positive/negative degree assortativity exists simultaneously in the WSTW.Over time the network structure form changes from core-periphery to core-middle-periphery.(3)Giving the ranking of Random Walk Betweenness Centrality(RWBC)of each country.(4)The QAP analysis shows that the evolution of WSTW over time is a self-stabilizing and gradual process,and multi-dimensional distance variables between countries can explain 3.1% evolve of the WSTW structure.