中美战略竞争与大战略博弈

Strategic Competition and Grand Strategic Game between China and the US

特朗普执政以来,中美战略竞争态势明显。中美战略竞争的关键取决于国家治理和国家实力,双方之间大战略的制定与执行至关重要。冷战后美国虽多次历经大战略辩论,但霸权战略从未变更,主要是战略手段调整,谋求尽可能实现成本优化。对于中美战略竞争而言,“一带一路”倡议与“亚太再平衡”战略、“印太战略”不过是中美之间阶段性、局部博弈的体现,并不能完全主导中美战略竞争的结局。大战略博弈才能决定两国的战略趋势,中美双方如何将各自的阶段性战略、地区战略、局部战略等纳入其大战略框架非常重要。

Since Trump came into office,strategic competition between China and the US has gained momentum.Given the huge size of the two countries and their respective advantages,China and the US will mainly engage in peaceful competition,which means the strategic competition between them will be characterized by normalization and persistence.Under such circumstances,the key to the strategic competition between the two countries will lie in national governance and national strength.Therefore,their respective formulation and implementation of grand strategies toward each other are crucial.Although the US has experienced several grand strategy debates since the end of the Cold War,hegemony strategy has never changed.What have changed are strategic means,aimed at optimizing costs as much as possible.In the case of the China-US strategic competition,the Belt and Road Initiative vs.the Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy and the Indo-Pacific strategy is nothing but embodiment of staged and partial game between China and the US,which cannot determine the outcome of the strategic competition between China and United States.Only grand strategic game can determine the strategic trend of the two countries.As a result,how China and the US will incorporate their staged,regional and local strategies into their respective grand strategies is of great i mportance.