长沙市主要农业气象灾害风险区划

Major Agrometeorological Disaster Risk Zones in Changsha

本文采用长沙地区4个国家气象站1981—2010年逐日气象资料与长沙地区地形高程资料(DEM),对影响长沙的6种气象灾害进行风险等级区划分析,以期为长沙市农业生产的气象灾害防御提供依据。结果表明,长沙市大部分地区为高温热害高风险区,干旱灾害、倒春寒灾害中等风险区,洪涝灾害、五月低温灾害、寒露风灾害低风险区;大围山、连云山、伪山为洪涝灾害、倒春寒灾害、五月低温灾害、寒露风灾害次高或高风险区,干旱灾害、高温热害低风险区;连云山与大围山之间的峡谷地带为洪涝灾害高风险区,长沙市区南部湘江河谷地带为倒春寒灾害高风险区;通过K-means聚类分析,长沙市农业气象灾害气候风险可划分为高温热害、干旱,较高的倒春寒的气候风险区等6个区。

This paper used daily meteorological data of four national meteorological stations in Changsha area from 1981 to 2010 and topographic elevation data(DEM)in Changsha area to analyze the risk grade division of six kinds of meteorological disasters affecting Changsha,so as to provide the basis for the meteorological disaster prevention of agricultural production in Changsha.The results showed that,most areas of Changsha was high-risk area of high temperature and heat damage,moderate risk area of drought disaster,cold disaster of fall spring,low risk area of flood disaster,low temperature disaster of May,cold dew wind disaster;Dawei Mountain,Lianyun Mountain and Wei Mountain were secondary high-risk or high-risk areas of flood and waterlogging disasters,cold in late spring disasters,low temperature disasters in May and cold dew wind disaster,low risk areas of drought disaster,high temperature and heat hazard disasters;the valley zone between Lianyun Mountain and Dawei Mountain were high-risk areas of flood disaster,and the Xiangjiang River Valley in the southern part of Changsha were high-risk areas of cold in late spring disaster.Through K-means cluster analysis,the climate risk of agrometeorological disaster in Changsha could be divided into six regions,such as high temperature heat hazard,drought and high climate risk area of cold in late spring,etc.