基于组合赋权-后悔理论的城市综合管廊运维总体风险评估

Overall Risk Assessment for Urban Utility Tunnel during Operation and Maintenance Based on Combination Weighting and Regret Theory

为有效评估城市综合管廊设施在运维期间的总体风险状态,合理制定综合管廊风险防控措施和应急响应方案,在构建城市综合管廊运维总体风险评估指标体系的基础上,运用基于博弈论思想的组合赋权技术,融合G1法和熵权法确定各项评估指标的权重系数,并引入基于有限理性的后悔理论来对城市综合管廊运维的总体风险进行评估。实例研究结果表明:①融合了主、客观权重值的组合权重,一方面考虑了原始评分数据包含的信息量,另一方面也考虑了专家积极的主观能动性,使得指标权重更加符合实际情况,更具代表性;②后悔理论不仅能确定风险等级,还能给出量化的风险评估值,其给出的量化的风险评估值较其他风险评估方法偏小,有利于规避风险,减少不必要的损失;③后悔理论不仅能获得城市综合管廊运营的总体风险状况,也能得到各准则层的风险状况,便于了解风险发生的源头,制定针对性强的风险应对措施。

In order to effectively assess the overall risk state of the urban utility tunnel during operation and maintenance,and rationally formulate risk prevention measures and emergency response measures,based on the construction of the overall risk assessment index system of urban utility tunnel during operation and maintenance,this paper uses the combined weighting technology based on game theory,which combines the G1method and entropy weight method to determine the weight coefficient of each index,and uses regret theory to evaluate the overall risk stateof urban utility tunnel during opoeration and maintenance.The results of case study are as follows:①The combination weight is more consistent with the actual situation and more representative due to the combination of subjective and objective weight values,which,on the one hand,considers the information contained in the original score data,and on the other hand,also considers the active subjective initiative of experts;②The regret theory can not only determine the risk level,but also provide a quantitative risk assessment value,whose quantified risk assessment value is smaller than those of other methods,which is conducive to reducing unnecessary losses;③The regret theory can obtain not only the overall risk status of the urban utility tunnel during operation and maintenance,but also the risk status of each criterion layer,which helps us to understand the source of the risk and take targeted risk countermeasures.