新疆牧业地区哈萨克族居家失能老年人非正式照护时间成本预测

Forecasting the Informal Care Time Cost for Home-Based Disabled Elderly of Kazak in Xinjiang Pastoral Areas

目的:通过预测未来十年(2019-2028年)新疆牧业地区哈萨克族居家失能老年人非正式照护时间成本,为居家失能老年人非正式照护费用补偿及长期照护政策制定提供科学参考依据。方法:基于机会成本法和代理好方法核算牧区居家失能老年人非正式照护时间成本,运用精算模型预测未来十年新疆牧区哈萨克族居家失能老年人非正式照护时间成本。结果:(1)按照机会成本法核算,2019-2028年新疆牧区哈萨克族居家失能老年人非正式照护总时间成本由3.94亿元/年增至10.88亿元/年,其中,轻、中、重度失能老年人非正式照护时间成本分别由2.19亿元/年增至5.84亿元/年、0.86亿元/年增至2.44亿元/年、0.84亿元/年增至2.66亿元/年;(2)按照代理好方法核算,2019-2028年新疆牧区哈萨克族居家失能老年人非正式照护总时间成本由3.38亿元/年增至9.35亿元/年,其中,轻、中、重度失能老年人非正式照护时间成本分别由1.88亿元/年增至5.02亿元/年、0.74亿元/年增至2.09亿元/年、0.72亿元/年增至2.29亿元/年。结论:在了解未来牧区失能老年人口结构变化前提下,政府部门需结合新疆牧区区情制定卫生费用补偿政策,因地制宜对哈萨克族不同失能状态老年人进行居家照护费用补偿。

Objective To forecast the informal care time cost of home-based disabled elderly of Kazak in Xinjiang pastoral areas in the next ten years,and provide scientific references for the compensation of informal care cost and the formulation of long-term care policy for home-based disabled elderly.Methods The informal care time cost of home-based disabled elderly in pastoral areas was calculated with the opportunity cost method and proxy good method.And the informal care time cost of home-based disabled elderly in Xinjiang pastoral areas in the next ten years was forecast by actuarial model.Results According,to the accounting by opportunity cost method,the total time cost of informal care for home-based disabled elderly of Kazak in Xinjiang pastoral areas in 2019-2028 increased from 0.394 billion/year to 1.088 billion/year,in which the informal care time cost for light,medium and severe disability elderly increased.from 0.219 billion/year to 0.584 billion/year,0.086 billion/year to 0.244 billion/year,and 0.084 billion/year to 0.266 billion/year,respectively.According to accounting by proxy good method,the total time cost of informal care increased from 0.338 billion/year to 0.935 billion/year,in which the informal care time cost for light,medium and severe disability elderly increased from 0.188 billion/year to 0.502 billion/year,0.074 billion/year to 0.209 billion/year,and 0.072 billion/year to 0.229 billion/year,respectively.Conclusion Under the premise of understanding the future changes of the structure of disabled elderly population in pastoral areas,the government should formulate health expense compensation policies based on the situation of pastoral areas in Xinjiang,and compensate the cost of different home-based elderly in Kazak according to local conditions.