基于物质流核算和LMDI分解分析方法的中国物质资源消耗研究

A LMDI Analysis of China’s Material Consumption Based on MFA Data Considering Resource Recycling

以考虑资源综合利用的物质流核算数据为基础,运用LMDI方法分析了中国2000—2017年国内资源消耗(DMC)的规模、强度、变化趋势和DMC变化的影响因素。研究发现,2000—2017年中国DMC变化呈现倒“U”型,自2015年起已出现绝对减物质化现象。GDP增长对中国物质消耗增长产生了重要的正向拉动力,但近年来拉动力有所减弱。物质消耗强度总体上产生了重要的负向拉动力,且负向拉动力随时间有所增加。产业结构长期来看并没有对物质消耗产生显著影响,但是近年来正在持续产生负向拉动的积极影响。近年来,建筑业和工业行业的节能降耗措施与产业结构调整对中国经济活动减物质化产生了重要的作用;电力行业则由于能源效率提高和行业结构调整空间日趋狭窄,对DMC有少量的正向拉动力;其他三个行业的物质消耗强度持续呈现减小趋势,但交通行业的行业比重有所增加,对物质消耗产生了少量的正向拉动力。

Based on the MFA data in consideration of resource recycling,this paper employs LMDI method to analyze the scale,intensity,trend and influencing factors of DMC in China between 2000-2017.It is found that DMC in China in the observed period shows an“inverted U”pattern,and has shown signs of absolute declination since 2015,indicating that China is recently showing an absolute dematerialization in addition to the sustaining relative dematerialization.LMDI analysis finds that GDP growth has an important positive effect on China’s material consumption changes,but this effect has weakened in recent years.Intensity of material consumption has an important negative effect which has strengthened in recent years.Industrial structure in the long run has not shown prominent effects but in recent years it has started to show a prominent negative effect.For construction and industry sectors,resource reduction practices and structural adjustment have played an important role in realizing dematerialization in recent years;for power sector,narrowing space for energy efficiency improvement and structural adjustment has resulted in minimal positive effects for DMC changes.Material consumption intensities of the other three sectors have been decreasing of which the continuous reduction effect cannot be ignored.The GDP percentage of the transportation sector has increased resulting certain positive effect on material consumption.