四川省新冠肺炎疫情风险分级策略应用

Application of risk grading strategy for COVID-19 epidemic control in Sichuan province

目的了解四川省新冠肺炎疫情风险分级情况,评估风险分级策略的应用,为应对疫情提供数据支持和思路。方法收集2020年1月21日0时-3月18日24时新冠肺炎疫情相关信息资料,使用ArcGIS作图,用SPSS 22.0对数据进行整理和分析。结果四川省共有183个行政区,3月2日24时(四川省正式发布风险分级标准)为时间节点,全省共有128个低风险地区、54个中风险地区、1个高风险地区;聚集性病例、输入性病例在不同风险分级地区分布差异具有统计学意义(P=0.001,P<0.05),防治策略应以严防输入、阻断传播、精准救治为主;住院时长与地区风险分级具有相关性(rs=0.088,P=0.041)。结论四川省中风险地区主要分布在经济较发达、人口流动频繁的成都及川东北地区,在风险分级差异化防控措施的实施下,本省疫情得到了有效控制。

Objective To examine risk grading-based control on coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)epidemic in Sichuan province and to provide references for effective containment of the epidemic.Methods The data on all COVID-19 cases reported in Sichuan province from January 21 through March 18,2020 were collected from National Disease Prevention and Control Information System.SPSS22.0 software was used in data process and analysis and ArcGIS was adopted to construct graphics of special distribution of the COVID-19 cases.Regional grading on risk of COVID-19 were performed according to the Provincial Guideline on Risk Grading-Based Containment of COVID-19 issued by provincial administrations.Results Among 183 administrative regions in Sichuan province,128 and 54 were classified into regions with low and moderate risk of COVID-19 epidemic,and only one was classified as the region with high risk of the epidemic based on the assessment conducted on March 2,2020-the day of governmental release of the risk grading guideline.The incidents of clustered and imported COVID-19 cases differed significantly among in regions with different risk category(P=0.001,P<0.05).There was a correlation between the COVID-19 cases′hospitalization duration and the risk category of the region where the cases being hospitalized(rs=0.088,P=0.041).Conclusion In Sichuan province,the regions at moderate risk of COVID-19 epidemic mainly distribute in Chengdu and northeastern area with high economic development and frequent population migration;the risk grading-based management plays a role in effective control on COVID-19 epidemic in the province.