福建省1980-2017气候变化特征及未来趋势

Climate Change Characteristics and Future Trends of Fujian Province During 1980-2017

为研究福建气候变化特征及预测未来趋势,运用线性回归、Mann-Kendall突变检验、小波分析和R/S分析等方法分析了福建省1980—2017共38 a的年降水量、年平均气温数据。结果显示:1)福建省近38 a平均气温上升趋势显著,年际倾向率为,有明显的突变点;2)福建省年降水量在2000年后有增多趋势,但趋势不显著,年平均降水量在未存在明显突变时间点。3)福建年平均气温变化第一主周期为14 a,未来年平均气温将有下降趋势,持续程度弱;福建年降水量变化第一主周期为27 a,未来年平均降水量将减少,持续程度强。

In order to study the climate change characteristics and forecast the future trend of Fujian Province,the data of annual precipitation and annual mean temperature from 1980 to 2017 in Fujian province were analyzed by linear regression,Mann-Kendall mutation test,wavelet analysis and R/S analysis.The results show that:1)The annual average temperature of Fujian Province increased significantly in the past 38 years,the interannual trend rate was,there were obvious mutation points;2)The annual precipitation of Fujian Province increased after 2000,but the trend was not significant,the annual average precipitation did not have obvious mutation time point.3)The first main cycle of annual average temperature change in Fujian Province is 14 a,the next annual average temperature will have a downward trend,the degree of persistence is weak.The first main cycle of annual precipitation change in Fujian is 27 a,the next annual average precipitation will decrease,the degree of persistence is strong.