MATLAB和指数平滑法在福建省人口老龄化中的运用

Population Aging in Fujian Province Based on MATLAB and Exponential Smoothing Method

以2000—2018年福建省人口统计数据为资料,通过MATLAB模型、指数平滑法等方法阐述福建人口老龄化现状及其特征。研究发现:老年人口数呈非线性增长,福建省2019—2035年间的老年人口数随着时间推移将继续增长,考虑其他因素影响,即政策实施、经济因素影响,老年人口数增长也逐渐趋于平缓。研究表明,福建省未来人口老龄化还处于低阶,其他因素对人口老龄化的影响,还需进一步研究。

Based on the population statistics of Fujian Province from 2000 to 2018.This paper uses MATLAB models and exponential smoothing methods to explain the current situation and characteristics of the aging population in Fujian.It is found that the number of elderly people will grow non-linearly and predict the number of Fujian province from 2019 to 2035.The population of the elderly,that is,over time,the population of the elderly will continue to increase,taking into account the impact of other factors,that is,the implementation of policies and economic factors,the growth of the population of the elderly has gradually flattened.Research shows that the future population aging in Fujian is still at a low level,and the impact of other factors on population aging needs further study.