人民币汇率变动对就业的冲击效应——福建省三次产业的实证分析

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on Employment--An Empirical Study based on the Three Industries in Fujian Province

基于1985—2017年年度数据,采用VAR模型研究人民币汇率变动对福建省三次产业就业的冲击效应。累积脉冲响应函数的结果表明:福建省三次产业就业受到汇率冲击的反应都是负向的,并且有一定的滞后性,汇率对福建省第二产业就业的冲击程度大于第一产业和第三产业。方差分解的结果表明:汇率冲击对福建省第二产业就业变动的贡献值最大,汇率对三次产业就业的变动均有一定的解释力。建议根据汇率变动特点制定差异化的出口退税政策,重点关注制造业企业对人民币升值的承受能力,加大基础设施建设的投入。

Based on the annual data from 1985 to 2017,VAR model is used to study the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the employment of three industries in Fujian province.The results of cumulative impulse response function show that the responses of three industries in Fujian province to exchange rate shocks are all negative,and have certain lag.The impact of exchange rate on the employment of secondary industry in Fujian Province is greater than that of primary industry and tertiary industry.The result of variance decomposition shows that the exchange rate impact has the greatest contribution to the employment change of the secondary industry in Fujian Province,and the exchange rate has a certain explanatory power to the employment change of the three industries.On the basis of empirical research,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the level of employment in Fujian Province.