摘要
为完善京津冀地区的森林火灾风险管理体系,基于公共安全三角形理论,利用遥感和地理信息系统(GIS)手段获取和处理3类共14项指标数据;使用熵权法为指标确定权重,结合GIS计算分析京津冀地区森林火灾综合风险;通过与历史火灾数据对比,验证所提出的综合风险评估方法和评估结果的合理性。结果表明:危险性的主要影响因素是居民点密度,目标敏感度的主要影响因素是植被覆盖率,目标暴露性的主要影响因素是人均国内生产总值(GDP),救援能力的主要影响因素是消防力量建设;从2005—2015年,京津冀地区整体的森林火灾综合风险在降低。
In order to improve risk management of forest fire in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,based on public safety triangle theory,a total of 14 indicators in three categories were obtained and processed through Remote Sensing and Geography Information System(GIS).Then,their weights were determined by entropy weighting method,and comprehensive forest fire risk of the region was calculated and analyzed by utilizing GIS.Finally,this evaluation method was verified by comparing assessment results with historical fire data.The results show that major influencing factor for hazard is density of residential areas,that is vegetation coverage for target sensitivity,per capita GDP for target exposedness and fire force development for rescue capability.It is also found that comprehensive risk of forest fire has been decreasing from 2005 to 2015 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
作者
蒋琴
钟少波
朱伟
JIANG Qin;ZHONG Shaobo;ZHU Wei(College of Resource Environment and Tourism,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048,China;Beijing Research Center of Urban Systems Engineering,Beijing 100035,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第10期119-125,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
北京市科技计划课题(Z191100001419002)。
关键词
京津冀
森林火灾
综合风险评估
公共安全三角形
熵权法
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
forest fire
comprehensive risk assessment
public safety triangle
entropy weighting method
