基于改进突变级数法的航道通航环境风险评价

Navigation environment risk assessment of the channels based on the improved catastrophe progression method

为减少航道通航环境风险评价中指标赋权的人为主观因素影响,引入无需确定指标权重的突变级数法构建评价模型。对航道通航环境关键要素进行系统分析,并结合当前研究成果和专家意见,确定了航道通航环境风险评价指标体系。采用CRITIC法对突变级数法中的指标重要性排序问题进行改进,构建基于改进突变级数法的航道通航环境风险评价模型,降低了评价过程中决策分析的主观性。实例验证表明,改进的突变级数法评价模型与熵值法和变异系数法的评价结果具有一致性,是实用有效的,可用于航道通航环境风险评价。

To ensure the navigation safety of the waterway,the paper intends to introduce a risk assessment model based on the catastrophe progression method and the CRITIC method. Taking the said model as a research tool,we have done a system analysis in referring to a series of related technical literature documents to identify and determine the influential factors that may affect the navigation safety of the waterway by dividing the influential factors concerned into 3 first-level ones and 11 second-level ones. At the same time,all the evaluation factors can also be subdivided into 5 risk grades,that is,the high risk ones,the comparatively higher risk ones,the generally dangerous ones,as well as the comparatively lower risk ones and the truly low risk ones,so as to build up a comprehensive risk assessment index system for the waterway navigation. What is more,we have also introduced the steps on how to construct a risk assessment model. And,in so doing,to achieve the above mentioned purposes,we should determine the weights of the evaluation indexes and reduce the effects of the subjective judgment bias of the experts in the above mentioned ways. And,secondly,the ranking results based on the weights of the evaluation indexes can also be applied to the catastrophe progressive approach. Simultaneously,the objective weighting method based on the CRITIC approach can also be transformed into the traditional over-reliance methods on the expert subjective evaluation and make the assessment results more objective and true to the authentic data results. And,so,to verify the validity of the above said evaluation model,we have managed to make the assessment for the total 16 harbors and ports by joining the entropy method and the coefficient variation method along with the other 2 related methods. Thus,in final analysis,we have managed to prove that the improved or optimized catastrophe progression method is consistent with the evaluation results of the entropy method and the coefficient of the variation method. It has also shown that the evaluation model turns out to be practical and effective for evaluating the navigation environment risks of the channels.