基于博弈论的人员安全积分管理体系建立与评估

Setting-up and evaluation making of the management system for the personnel safety accumulated points based on the game theory

针对民航维修企业安全管理存在的责任分散及安全生产程序、标准和规范"执行难"的问题,建立和实施基于博弈论的人员安全积分管理体系,以实现对执行人员进行有效的管理、监控和约束。基于博弈论的基本原理,构建了某大型民航维修企业各层级人员之间的非合作博弈模型,建立了一套有效的人员安全积分管理体系。人员安全积分管理体系的实施有效地调动了企业各层级人员安全生产的主动性和积极性,不安全事件发生次数和万时发生率均约为实施前的1/2。人员安全积分管理体系能有效解决企业现有安全管理中存在的责任分散和"执行难"的问题,提高了安全管理水平,降低了民航维修企业的安全生产风险。

The paper intends to build up a management system for the personnel safety accumulated points based on the game theory and its implementation procedure to enhance its effective control,monitoring and promote its safety management in addition to the restriction of their behaviors. As is well known,in view of the problems existing in the safety management of the civil aviation maintenance institutions,such as those in charge of the decentralization of the responsibilities and the difficulty in executing safety production procedures,standards,as well as the specifications. When analyzing the practical problems of the safety management in a large civil aviation aircraft maintenance companies at home in China,we have constructed the 2 non-cooperative game models among the supervisor,the office manager and the office members based on the game theory and analyzed the models concerned. Furthermore,the analysis results of the game models have also enabled us to build up an effective personnel safety accumulated point management system and evaluate its actual operation effect when running it in the safety management process. The best game strategy for the supervisors is for the staff manager and staff members to gain the maximum benefits in the civil aviation aircraft maintenance sub-brunches through timely inspection and evaluate whether or not to check carefully and whether or not for the inspecting workers to work hard enough to establish the accountability mechanism concerning any relations between the safety transportation responsibility and the reckless outcome incidents. The establishment of the accountability mechanism related to the relationship between the safety production responsibility and unsafe or reckless outcome incidents is to urge or push the supervisor and staff managers to take the likely incidents as the guide,and choose to supervise and inspect such likely incidents seriously. However,the best choice for the staff members is to work conscientiously and seriously,so as to bring into full play their duties. And,to reach such a goal,it would be necessary to mobilize effectively the initiative and enthusiasm of the service workers at all levels. The reason is that any reckless or unsafe events may occur at any rate of thousandth microseconds if anybody or any thousandth of minutes or seconds fail to implement their duties. For,any individual safety accumulated points in the management system is closely linked up with the effective solution of the problems of decentralization of responsibilities and difficulties in execution in the existing safety management of the due business enthusiasm or enterprise. For,it is the execution and improvement of the safety management standard that can really guarantee the safety and help to reduce the flying risks of the civil aviation aircraft maintenance companies.