房价变动影响我国居民消费的中介效应分析——基于家庭财富配置的视角

The Mediating Effect of Price of Housing Changes on Household Consumption—Based on the Perspective of Household Wealth Allocation

房价高速增长与消费增速放缓是近些年中国经济社会发展的两个重要特征,房产作为中国居民资产配置中的重要组成部分,其价格变动必将对居民消费产生重要影响。选取中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,基于家庭财富配置视角,构建中介效应模型分析房价变动影响我国居民消费的机制,在此基础上分析相对房价水平和房价增速对房价波动影响消费的调节效应。结果显示,房价上涨通过增加可支配收入和降低储蓄率对有房家庭消费产生促进作用。并且,房价增速的加快会抑制该住房财富效应。而相对房价水平的提高则会促进其发挥。

Rapid growth of housing price and slow growth of consumption are two important characteristics of China s economic and social development in recent years.As an important part of Chinese residents asset,housing price changes will have an important impact on residents consumption.Unlike previous studies,the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)were selected to construct the mediation effect model,based on the perspective of household wealth allocation,the mediating effect model is constructed to summarize the functional channels of housing price fluctuations affecting residents consumption,and to analyze the regulating effect of relative housing price level and housing price growth rate on housing price fluctuations affecting consumption.The results suggest that the rise of housing prices boost household consumption by increasing disposable income and lowering savings rates.At the same time,the acceleration of housing price growth will weaken the wealth effect of housing.An increase in relative housing prices would mainly enhance the wealth effect of housing by increasing disposable income.Therefore,the article concludes that the rise of housing.