滇中受水区农业水资源承载力评价研究

Evaluation on agricultural water resources carrying capacityin water receiving area central Yunnan Province

为摸清滇中受水区农业水资源的开发利用程度,支撑滇中引水二期工程水资源优化配置,在分析滇中受水区农业用水特征及影响因素的基础上,构建了农业水资源承载力评价指标,利用模糊综合评价法对滇中引水工程受水区35个县(区、市)2012~2015年的农业水资源承载力进行了研究。研究结果表明:①受水区的整体农业水资源承载力偏低,农业水资源开发潜力较小,其中,10个县(区、市)的承载力处于过饱和状态,14个县(区、市)的承载力处于饱和状态,7个县(区、市)的承载力处于有一定承载力的状态。②整个受水区综合评分均未超过0.5,说明农业水资源开发利用潜力不大,应在尽快建设滇中引水二期工程的同时,大力推广节水技术与节水措施,实现由耗水型农业向节水型农业的转变,确保区域农业绿色可持续发展。

In order to find out the development and utilization degree of agricultural water resources in the central Yunnan Province,and to support the optimal allocation of water resources in the second phase of water diversion project in the central Yunnan Province,based on the analysis of the characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural water use in the central Yunnan Province,this paper constructed an evaluation index system of agricultural water resources carrying capacity,and used the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the agricultural water carrying capacity of 35 counties(districts,cities)in the central Yunnan Province from 2012 to 2015.The results showed that the overall carrying capacity of agricultural water resources was low and the potential of agricultural water resources development was small.10 counties(districts,cities)were in oversaturated state,14 counties(districts,cities)were in saturated state,and 7 counties(districts,cities)still had certain bearing capacity state.The comprehensive scores of the whole water receiving area were not more than 0.5,indicating that the development and utilization potential of agricultural water resources was low.It was necessary to construct the second phase of water diversion project in the central Yunnan Province as soon as possible and vigorously promote water-saving technology and measures to realize the transformation from water consuming agriculture to water-saving agriculture,ensuring the sustainable development of regional agriculture.