人口老龄化对企业创新的影响--基于人口普查数据与微观工业企业数据的实证分析

The Influence of Population Ageing on Enterprise Innovation:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Data of Census and Micro Industrial Enterprises

要素相对价格决定企业最优生产结构,人口老龄化引致有效劳动供给的减少与劳动力成本的上升,进而影响企业创新。将地级市的人口普查数据和微观工业企业数据库相匹配,分析了人口老龄化对企业创新的影响。研究发现:第一,现阶段低水平的人口老龄化显著促进了中国企业创新,但长远来看,当人口老龄化超过一定的拐点值时,将抑制企业创新;第二,相对于其他类型的企业,人口老龄化对非国有企业和资本密集型企业创新的促进作用更强;第三,人口老龄化对东部和中部地区的企业创新都产生了促进作用,而对西部地区的企业创新产生了抑制性影响;第四,人口流动抑制了人口老龄化对东部地区的企业创新的促进作用。据此,提出优化企业生产要素投入、培养质量型人口红利、推动区域创新协调发展等建议。

The relative price of factors determines the optimal production structure of enterprises. Population ageing leads to the decrease of effective labor supply and the increase of labor costs, and thus affects enterprise innovation. This paper links the city-level census data to the data of micro industrial enterprises and analyzes the impact of regional population ageing on enterprise innovation outputs. The results show that(i) the current low level of population ageing has significantly promoted the innovation of Chinese enterprises, while population ageing exceeding a certain inflection point in the long run will inhibit enterprise innovation;(ii) compared to other types of enterprises, population ageing is more likely to promote innovation in non-state-owned enterprises and capital-intensive enterprises;(iii) the ageing of China’s population has promoted the innovation of enterprises in eastern and central regions, while it has negatively affected the enterprise innovation in western regions;(iv) population migration restrains the promotion effect of population ageing on enterprise innovation in eastern region. Policies should optimize the input of production factors, cultivate the quality demographic dividend, and promote the coordinated regional development of innovation.